BILLINGS — On Tuesday, three major tariffs by the Trump administration went into effect: a 10% tariff on Chinese imported goods, and a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods.
According to a LendingTree study in 2025, almost 95% of Montana's imported goods are from those three countries. Economist Robert Sonora expects these tariffs will hurt the wallets of Montana consumers.
See the video for this story below:
In Montana, imported goods from Canada include petroleum, wood, and animal products, while the state relies heavily on produce from Mexico, such as strawberries and avocados.
Some retailers are anticipating raising prices to offset the costs of the tariffs. The CEO of Target, Brian Cornell, said those hikes could start by the end of this week.
MTN spoke with shoppers outside the Billings Target store Wednesday.
Shopper Greg Heider said he recently moved from southern California and noticed gas prices were cheaper in Montana.
When asked about the future tariffs impacting local grocery prices, Heider told MTN he wasn't concerned.
"To me, it really just boils down to a negotiation tactic. It's really what it's going to come down to. Canada has been tariffing us forever," he said.
Sonora said over a virtual interview Wednesday that that negotiation tactic could have a big impact on national prices.
"It does have a pretty significant effect on the prices that you and I pay on any given day," he said.
Sonora is an economics professor at the University of Montana and previously worked for the Bureau of Economic Research.
He says that while importers pay tariffs at the border, a large portion (he estimates 80-90%) is passed down to the consumer through heightened prices.
"It's going to raise prices for anything we buy that's imported from Canada and Mexico," Sonora said.
Because of Montana's reliance on Canadian and Mexican goods, grocery prices are likely to increase because of the tariffs, especially for produce that cannot be grown in the state.
"Produce is very seasonal, and yet people want that produce throughout the year. Whereas things like wheat, barley, beef, potatoes, we can produce that in Montana year-round. So, there's a lot more price stability for those goods," said Ian Finch, the director of the Food Access Program at Farm Connect Montana.
The program helps connect recipients of SNAP benefits with local farmers to help save on groceries.
"Our position now is, you know, we help people really look into local food sources. Because, especially during the COVID pandemic when we saw shelves empty, local food was still there," he said over a virtual interview Wednesday.
Finch suggests that because increased costs of imported goods from Canada and Mexico will push grocery prices upward, purchasing from a local farmer may be more affordable.
"Those local farmers have more.... of an ethical position where they're not trying to make the most money off consumers. They really are trying to live out their best life," Finch said.
But because the tariffs are so new, both Sonora and Finch say it's too early to predict the future impacts.
"No matter what type of farmer you are right now, there are uncertainties, and the federal government, for better or worse, provides a lot of support to the agricultural system," Finch said.
"We're facing a lot of uncertainty and no one knows what the outcome is going to be," Sonora said.
