HELENA — Montana lawmakers have laid out their initial projection for how much money the state will have to work with during the 2025 legislative session.
On Tuesday, the Revenue Interim Committee voted to move forward with a revenue estimate for the next three years, predicting about $3.5 billion coming into the state general fund each year.
The committee began their look at projected revenue last week.
“I appreciate everybody taking the extra time to take a hard look at these,” said Sen. Becky Beard, R-Elliston, who chairs the committee. “It’s important that we do fulfill our obligation to our voters, our Montana taxpayers, to really be on top of these and know as much we can about them before proceeding into the next session.”
The revenue estimate creates an official starting point as lawmakers begin hammering out the state budget every two years. Because state law requires the budget be balanced, it gives an upper bound on what the Legislature can spend.
During Tuesday’s meeting, the committee adjusted the initial estimate down by about $100 million over three years, to be more cautious about how much income tax will come in. That brought their estimate – based on projections from the Legislative Fiscal Division – closer to what the Governor’s Office of Budget and Program Planning projected in Gov. Greg Gianforte’s budget proposal.
“I think it’s wise for us to reduce the revenue estimate so that we don’t set ourselves with a spending target that might be excessive,” said Rep. Mark Thane, D-Missoula.
Ahead of the 2023 session, lawmakers were looking at a roughly $2 billion projected general fund surplus. This initial estimate projects a smaller surplus: around $1 billion in ending general fund balance. That number doesn't account for any potential law changes or budget proposals during the 2025 session.
By far the biggest source of general fund revenue is the individual income tax, which brought in about $2.2 billion for the 2024 fiscal year – about 57% of ongoing general revenues. That revenue spiked in 2021 and 2022, then fell slightly in 2023 and 2024 – though it remained much higher than it had been before the COVID pandemic.
LFD projects individual income tax collections will fall again in 2025 before starting to grow again, more slowly, in 2026. Analysts said there are a number of reasons for the decline and slower future growth, including lower capital gains, slowing inflation and a series of income tax reductions passed in the 2021 and 2023 Legislatures.
OBPP also noted that the number of people moving to Montana has fallen since the height of the pandemic.
There are other parts of the budget picture that have changed from the last legislative session. LFD said collections of oil and gas production taxes were lower than projected by almost $8 million in 2023 and almost $9 million in 2024. Analysts projected those taxes will remain relatively flat over the next two years as production increases and price reductions offset.
LFD also reported the “bed tax” – the lodging tax collected on hotels, campgrounds and other accommodations – appears to have leveled off after a big post-COVID increase. They’re forecasting slower growth going forward.
One reason general fund revenues may appear lower this session is that a large share of property tax revenue was redirected in 2023 from the general fund to a special revenue account, where it will be used for school equalization funding and, in some cases, reducing local property taxes.
This revenue estimate is only a starting point. Lawmakers say midway through the legislative session, around March, they’ll get a better idea of exactly how much revenue has come in – right around the time they’ll be finalizing the budget.
