NewsPolitical News

Actions

Harris is taking an increasing polling edge against Trump, but what does that mean?

Several new polls released since the democratic national convention last week show Vice President Kamala Harris moving ahead of former President Donald Trump.
AP Poll Election 2024
Posted

New polls out Thursday show a turnaround for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

Several new polls released since the democratic national convention last week show Vice President Kamala Harris moving ahead of former President Donald Trump.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Harris leading Trump 45% to 41%, while a USA Today/Suffolk University poll has Harris at 48% and Trump at 43%.

But with so many polls, it's hard to keep track of where the presidential race actually stands.

Professor Andy Crosby, with the University of California, Riverside, says there are several things to keep in mind when trying to interpret a poll, including the sample size of the survey and the margin of error.

"3% is common, especially when you get that sample size of between one thousand and two thousand people, you're gonna see margins of error, you know, 3% or so," Crosby said. "When we start to see 5%, 6% margin of error, then you're less confident in those results."

RELATED STORY | Harris says values haven't changed in first interview as presidential nominee

Meanwhile, the latest Fox News poll shows Harris ahead in three sunbelt swing states — which Crosby says are key to watch for.

"If you're thinking, 'I want to predict the presidential election, I want to know what's gonna happen,' watch the state polls," Crosby said. "The national polling is interesting and we want to know what the country is thinking, but that's not how we elect the president."

As you read and hear about polls leading up to election day, experts say familiarizing yourself with how they work will give you a clearer picture of the accuracy of the results.