BILLINGS — We begin an active weather pattern on Friday with elevated to critical fire weather risks, especially across the western foothills and northern Wyoming. Possible record-setting daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s, coupled with humidity percentages dropping into the single digits to low teens and wind gusts 20+ mph region-wide, with stronger gusts of 35 to 45 mph along the mountains and foothills, will drive these conditions. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for the western and southern foothills.
A significant pattern change arrives Saturday as an upper-level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest, bringing cooler temperatures and widespread moisture.
A cold front passing through on Saturday will push in Pacific moisture, boosted by Tropical Storm Rachel, alongside brisk northeasterly winds. The timing of the front will create a sharp temperature contrast across the region. Highs may top out in the upper 50s in our northern counties, while locations in southern Montana and northern Wyoming could reach into the low 70s. Rain and snow showers will begin in the western mountains and foothills on Saturday before spreading across the entire region Saturday night through Monday.
The region is on track for a widespread precipitation event. Mountain areas are facing heavy snowfall, with a 60% to 70% chance of receiving 12 or more inches above 8,000 feet. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the Beartooth, Absaroka, and Crazy Mountains, extending into the Melville Foothills. Travel, outdoor recreation, and tree limbs will face substantial impacts from this early-season heavy snow. The Beartooth Pass will close Friday afternoon.
Recent model runs have trended warmer in the lower atmosphere, reducing the potential for significant snow accumulation at lower elevations east of the foothills. While cold air originating from Alaska and the Yukon is moving south, the coldest core is projected to remain in northern Canada, keeping surface temperatures high enough to keep most eastern areas as rain. Total moisture will still be significant, with eastern plains picking up 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain and western areas seeing 1.0 to 1.5 inches. The highest potential for accumulating snow at lower elevations stays west of Billings. In Billings itself, precipitation may mix with or briefly turn to snow, but accumulation will struggle on warm ground, with any light accumulation limited primarily to surrounding higher hills. Precipitation will wrap up late Monday as the upper low cuts off over the Southwest and a weak wave exits the region.
A significant drop in temperature moves in for the second half of the weekend and early next week, with daytime highs in the upper 30s and low 40s Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will drop into the 20s and 30s from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning, bringing the first freeze of the season to many locations.
Following a dry and milder Tuesday with highs in the 50s to near 60°, weather conditions become active again by the middle of next week. Confidence is building that a southwestern system will move northward, bringing rain showers to southeast Montana on Wednesday. A Canadian cold front is expected to arrive about the same time, potentially merging with the system to keep precipitation chances going through Thursday. Temperatures could drop enough Wednesday night into Thursday for rain to transition into wet snow, particularly along northern upslope areas.
Miller Robson
Q2 Morning Meteorologist
miller.robson@ktvq.com
